Solana's first leveraged prediction market protocol.
Built on Percolator by Anatoly Yakovenko -- a formally verified risk engine for perpetual futures. 152 projects forked it and built perps exchanges. We forked it and built prediction markets. The first mover in a direction nobody else went.
Status: Devnet-ready. Core protocol, matcher, and frontend are functional on Solana devnet. Next stage is mainnet deployment and audit.
-
Connect your wallet -- Click the wallet button in the top right. Any Solana wallet (Phantom, Solflare, etc.) works. The app runs on devnet, so no real funds are needed.
-
Get devnet SOL -- Click the "Faucet" button next to your wallet to receive 2 SOL on devnet for gas fees.
-
Browse markets -- The Markets page shows all active prediction markets. Filter by category (Crypto, Politics, Sports, Culture, Other), sort by volume or deadline, or search by keyword.
-
Place a trade -- Click any market card to open the trading view. You'll see a live probability chart, order book, and trade panel. Choose Buy YES or Buy NO, select your leverage (1x-5x), set your price and size, and submit.
-
Track your positions -- The Portfolio page shows your open positions, P&L, leverage, and liquidation prices.
-
Create a market -- Click "+ Create Market" to ask any yes/no question. Set a deadline, choose a resolution method (manual, Pyth oracle, multi-sig, or optimistic), and deposit initial liquidity.
Percolator tracks long and short positions. In perps, "long" means you bet the price goes up. But what if "long" means YES? And "short" means NO?
The oracle price becomes probability. The margin system becomes leverage for predictions. The resolution mechanism becomes binary outcome settlement.
The math is identical. The product is completely different.
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
Engine (engine/) |
Toly's Percolator risk engine (4,796 lines of verified Rust) with our resolve_binary() extension for prediction market settlement |
Solana Program (programs/precipitator/) |
16-instruction Anchor program: trade, resolve, claim, liquidate, multi-sig resolution, optimistic resolution |
Matcher (packages/matcher/) |
Off-chain order book + WebSocket server for real-time order matching and trade submission |
Frontend (packages/frontend/) |
Next.js 14 trading terminal with live charts, leverage controls, order book visualization |
Polymarket Mirror (packages/polymarket-mirror/) |
Mirrors Polymarket event catalog onto Solana via Gamma API |
Resolver (packages/resolver/) |
Automated market resolution via Pyth oracle price feeds |
- Leveraged prediction markets -- 1x to 5x leverage on any prediction. Buy YES at 34c with 5x leverage, win $100 if correct. Return: 1,371%.
- Polymarket catalog on Solana -- Sports, politics, crypto, culture. Hundreds of events mirrored with real probabilities.
- Permissionless market creation -- Ask any yes/no question, set a deadline, deposit liquidity. 0.1 SOL creation fee.
- 4 resolution methods -- Admin manual, Pyth oracle automated, multi-sig panel vote, optimistic with challenge period.
- Formally verified -- Every arithmetic path in the risk engine proven correct by the Kani model checker. No unsafe code.
- Public leaderboard -- Top traders ranked by P&L across all markets.
+------------------+
| Next.js 14 |
| Frontend |
+--------+---------+
|
REST + WebSocket
|
+--------+---------+
| Matcher |
| (off-chain |
| order book) |
+--------+---------+
|
Anchor CPI
|
+--------+---------+
| Precipitator |
| Solana Program |
+--------+---------+
|
+--------+---------+
| Percolator |
| Risk Engine |
| (Kani-verified)|
+------------------+
- Rust + Cargo
- Node.js 18+
- Solana CLI + Anchor
- Kani verifier (for proofs)
cd packages/frontend
npm install
npm run dev
# http://localhost:3000cd packages/matcher
npm install
npx ts-node src/index.ts
# REST API on :3030, WebSocket on :8080cd engine
cargo install --locked kani-verifier
cargo kani setup
cargo kani# Engine unit tests
cd engine && cargo test
# Anchor program tests
anchor testThe risk engine is Toly's Percolator -- 4,796 lines of formally verified Rust that solves two fairness problems in leveraged trading:
-
Exit fairness (H) -- When the vault is stressed, a single global haircut ratio determines how much profit is real. No queue priority, no first-come advantage.
-
Overhang clearing (A/K) -- When positions go bankrupt, two global coefficients distribute the deficit across the opposing side. No account is singled out. O(1) per account.
We extended it with:
resolve_binary()for YES/NO outcome settlement- Bounded-loss margin parameters tuned for prediction markets (probability 0-100 range)
- Warmup period as oracle-manipulation defense
Every arithmetic operation is proven correct by the Kani model checker. 243 tests passing (167 original + 24 prediction market + 52 integration). Zero failures.
On Polymarket, you put up $34 to buy YES at 34c. If it resolves YES, you get $100.
On Precipitator, at 5x leverage, you put up $6.80 for the same $100 payout:
| Leverage | You Pay | You Win | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x (Polymarket) | $34.00 | $100 | 194% |
| 2x | $17.00 | $100 | 488% |
| 3x | $11.33 | $100 | 782% |
| 5x | $6.80 | $100 | 1,371% |
Higher leverage means higher liquidation risk. The Percolator engine handles all margin math, liquidations, and deficit socialization with formal guarantees.
Precipitator/
engine/ # Percolator risk engine (Rust, Kani-verified)
programs/
precipitator/ # Anchor Solana program (16 instructions)
packages/
frontend/ # Next.js 14 trading terminal
matcher/ # Off-chain order book + WebSocket
polymarket-mirror/ # Polymarket event catalog mirror
resolver/ # Pyth oracle auto-resolution
config/ # Market configs, mirror lists
scripts/ # Demo and deployment scripts
- Percolator by Anatoly Yakovenko -- the formally verified risk engine that makes this possible
- Kani model checker for Rust verification
- Polymarket for the event catalog
- Pyth Network for oracle price feeds
Apache 2.0 -- same as the original Percolator.
Fork it, audit it, build on it.