Read the signal before it speaks.
Swarm intelligence platform for financial market simulation.
V1.2: ASX Earnings Surprise Predictor — spawns 50 autonomous analyst agents, seeds them with proprietary ASX data extracted from official earnings PDFs, runs a multi-round debate, returns a probability distribution of earnings beat/miss before the company reports.
V1.2 — proprietary ASX data pipeline complete. Admin dashboard live with token cost tracking (Sonnet/Haiku/Perplexity), daily activity, and Grafana-style time range picker. Earnings calendar with dual-source date discovery (yfinance + Perplexity Sonar) and confidence indicators. Augur reads official Appendix 4D/4E PDFs directly from ASX announcements and company IR pages. Company intel harvester fetches quarterly updates and investor presentations as leading indicators between reporting seasons.
Live at augur.vercel.app
- Interactive Explainer — animated walkthrough for non-technical users
- Live Demo
ASX Markit API ─────────────┐
├─→ asx_companies (Neon)
Company IR Pages ──→ PDFs ──→├─→ asx_earnings (Neon)
├─→ asx_commentary (Neon)
announcements.asx.com.au ──┘├─→ asx_metrics (Neon)
│
Quarterly Updates ──→ PDFs ──→─→ asx_company_intel (Neon)
Investor Presentations ─────┘
│
yfinance ──→ current prices ─┤
recommendations ┤
▼
seed cache (6hr TTL in Neon)
├─ HIT ──→ skip harvest (~125s)
└─ MISS ─→ seed_harvester (slow + fast layers)
│
▼
persona_forge (50 agents, 5 parallel Sonnet calls)
│
▼
negotiation_runner (3 rounds, parallel archetype batches)
↕ moderator_agent (between rounds — Haiku)
│ extracts bull/bear arguments
│ challenges outliers, flags dissenters
│ tracks swing factors
│
▼
prediction_synthesiser → verdict + swing factors
| Source | Data | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| ASX Markit API | Revenue, NPAT, EPS, PE, dividends | All ASX tickers |
| PDFExtractor | Detailed financials from Appendix 4D/4E | Top 25+ ASX |
| IRHarvester | Earnings PDFs from company IR pages | Top 25 ASX |
| CompanyIntelHarvester | Quarterly updates, investor presentations | Top 20 ASX |
| ConsensusHarvester | Forward consensus EPS, beat/miss history | All ASX tickers |
| Perplexity Sonar | Real-time financial news, analyst sentiment, earnings calendar gap-fill | All ASX tickers |
| Price Reaction Proxy | Beat/miss fallback from market response | All ASX tickers |
| yfinance | Current prices, recommendations, growth | All ASX tickers |
| ASIC Short Interest | Daily short position data | 669 ASX tickers |
| Market Index | Director transactions, 10-year financials | ASX 100 |
- Python FastAPI · Neon PostgreSQL · Claude API
- Next.js 14 · Cloudflare R2 · Railway · Upstash Redis
- ASX Markit Digital API · yfinance · curl_cffi
- asx_scraper/ — proprietary data pipeline (PDFs, ASX API, company intel, ASIC shorts, Market Index)
- seed_harvester/ — two-layer cache (slow: yfinance+Claude, fast: sentiment+intel)
- persona_forge/ — 50 analyst agents with bias-anchored starting probabilities
- negotiation_runner/ — 3-round structured debate with moderator agent
- negotiation_runner/moderator.py — structural moderator between rounds: extracts top arguments, challenges outliers, flags high-conviction dissenters, tracks swing factors
- prediction_synthesiser/ — final verdict with confidence intervals and moderator-identified swing factors
- scripts/ — earnings calendar harvester (dual-source: yfinance + Perplexity, confidence scoring)
- admin dashboard — protected
/adminpage with token cost breakdown (Sonnet/Haiku/Perplexity), daily activity, top tickers, recent simulations, feedback stats, Grafana-style time range picker - earnings calendar —
/calendarAPI + homepage widget + full/calendarpage with search, sector filter, week-grouped season view. ~141 future ASX 200 reports populated; Simulate button deep-links to homepage with ticker + date pre-filled (/?ticker=ORG&date=2026-04-10). Confidence dots (green=multi-source, amber=single-source, red=estimated)
BSL 1.1 — free for non-commercial use. Converts to Apache 2.0 after 4 years. See LICENSE.
Contributors welcome. See CONTRIBUTING.md.