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Add informal economy: counter-cyclical shadow economy with 4-channel tax evasion (#45)#30

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speedcom merged 1 commit intomainfrom
feature/informal-economy-45
Mar 3, 2026
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Add informal economy: counter-cyclical shadow economy with 4-channel tax evasion (#45)#30
speedcom merged 1 commit intomainfrom
feature/informal-economy-45

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@speedcom speedcom commented Mar 3, 2026

Summary

  • Add counter-cyclical informal economy mechanism (INFORMAL_ENABLED toggle, default off)
  • 4-channel tax evasion: CIT (firm-level), VAT, PIT, excise (aggregate-level)
  • Per-sector shadow shares calibrated from Schneider 2023 / GUS (Agri 35%, Retail 30%, Health 20%, Mfg 15%, BPO 5%, Public 2%)
  • Counter-cyclical dynamics: shadow share rises when unemployment exceeds threshold (lagged)
  • 8 env vars, 4 new output columns (178-181), 3 new World fields, 31 new tests
  • nCols 178 → 182; 1106 total tests passing; no new SFC identity (Identity 3 affected)

Test plan

  • sbt test — 1106 tests pass (31 new in InformalEconomySpec)
  • INFORMAL_ENABLED=true FIRM_SIZE_DIST=gus sbt "run 2000 3 informal_smoke pln" — EffectiveShadowShare ~0.57, TaxEvasionLoss ~32M PLN, no SFC FAIL
  • INFORMAL_ENABLED=false sbt "run 2000 3 baseline_smoke pln" — all informal columns = 0, no SFC FAIL
  • Gov debt higher with informality enabled (~33.5 vs ~32.4 mld PLN) confirming fiscal channel

@speedcom speedcom merged commit 110cc01 into main Mar 3, 2026
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@speedcom speedcom deleted the feature/informal-economy-45 branch March 3, 2026 11:56
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